تاثیر روند تغییرات عناصر اقلیمی بر تغییرات جمعیت سرشاخه خوار هلو Anarsia lineatella Zeller در باغ‌های شهرستان سامان استان چهارمحال و بختیاری

Peach twig borer, Anarsia lineatella Zeller, is a key pest and an important factor limiting the growing of peach and almond trees in Chaharmahal va Bakhtiari, Iran. Climate factors such as temperature and precipitation play an important role on population changes of the pest. The purpose of this project was to study the impact of climate factors on the population changes of peach twig borer. Meteorological data of Saman synoptic station were obtained from the Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari meteorological office and the population changes data of the pest was recorded using pheromone traps. Mann-Kendall test was used to study the trend of climatic and demographic data. Based on the results of the studied period (2007-2017), the average annual, winter and autumn temperatures showed increasing trend. Kendall statistics (T) were calculated as 0.64, 0.27, 0.20, 0.49 and 0.42 for annual mean temperature, spring, summer, autumn and winter seasons, respectively. Among different months of the year, the highest increasing of temperature occurred at January (especially in minimum temperature, T = 0.56). Moreover, the number of freezing days showed decreasing trend (T = -0.55). Calculated Pearson and Kendall coefficients between pest population and climatic factors, showed a positive and significant correlation between annual population and average, maximum and minimum annual temperatures. The calculated Pearson coefficients between population changes and average, minimum and maximum temperatures were 0.88, 0.92 and 0.72, respectively. Prediction of the pest population based on the climate change scenarios indicated increasing of the pest population, especially in scenario A.